Modelação da dinâmica de plantas invasoras em paisagens florestais em cenários futuros de alterações climáticas, de uso do solo, de gestão florestal e de incêndios.

Biological invasions are a growing pressure on ecosystems and on the provision of ecosystem goods and services. In

forest landscapes, alien invasive plants can modify key features of vegetation structure and function, which may

reflect negatively on the production of forest goods, on the provision of forest services, and on forest resistance and

resilience to disturbances. Nonetheless, the multiple factors affecting the dynamics of plant invaders in forest

landscapes are still not adequately evaluated at the several relevant scales. This research plan proposes to tackle this

gap by developing an integrative dynamic modelling framework to predict the dynamics of problematic plant invaders

against environmental conditions, biotic interactions, forest management, and stochastic disturbances. This

framework will be used to forecast future invasions under alternative scenarios of environmental and social-ecological

change. Model predictions and forecasts will finally support guidelines to anticipate and mitigate invasions at several

levels of forest planning and management.